Expert: Israeli intelligence turned Hezbollah revenge strike into utter failure

Israeli intelligence and air force capabilities were able to render a planned massive Hezbollah attack on the Jewish state into an utter failure, Dr. Eran Lerman, vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told Tamar Uriel-Beeri on The Jerusalem Post Podcast.

Lerman had explained that Hezbollah's recent attack on Israel, while huge, was far smaller than expected and planned for.

"They had to prepare carefully, because they were planning a fairly complicated operation," he explained regarding Hezbollah. "Remarkably, Israeli intelligence and air force capabilities, much denigrated in the current debate... turned out to be quite sufficient to answer the challenge."

Since October 7, Israel's military intelligence capabilities have been the subject of considerable doubt and skepticism. However, according to Lerman, they remain effective, especially when it comes to the North.

"The intelligence service, despite having to recover from a fundamental blow to its prestige and huge question mark about their capabilities vis-a-vie Hamas, has been for years focusing on Hezbollah," he explained. "This was an opportunity for a major strike."

Despite this, gaps remain in Israel's security in the North, with Hezbollah still being able to fire missiles and rockets into Israel. However, Lerman elaborated why this is the case. 

"These are different kinds of attacks," he said. 

It is one thing for a small squad with an anti-tank missile to sneak up to the border and fire into Israel. But it's another situation entirely when Hezbollah concentrates their capabilities and tries to launch a major coordinated strike.

"They gave away a lot of intelligence indicators that enabled the IDF, specifically the director of military intelligence, in close coordination with the air force, to... close in on them," he said.

The success of the IDF in preventing the massive Hezbollah attack may have also shifted variables in the hostage situation with Gaza.

"The one thing that [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar was counting on was that the continuation of the conflict will bring Iran in and will bring Hezbollah in," Lerman said. "What happened on the 25th of August raises questions about both aspects, and may just reduce his enthusiasm for the continuation of the conflict."

Lerman: Nasrallah is lying as an excuse to end the fighting

After the recent strikes on Israel, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah released statements regarding the terrorist organization's successes in striking Israel and avenging the killing of senior Hezbollah official Fuad Shukr. Lerman, as many other analysts have, called these statements out as lies. He added, though, that Nasrallah's aim is to try and bring the current round of fighting with Israel to a close.

The Hezbollah leader's words are "an excuse to end the round and not escalate further, because they know that the Lebanese people are very much opposed to any further escalation," he said. 

However, the Lebanese people don't seem to believe this. 

"People are not taking this seriously," Lerman said, citing the many memes about Hezbollah striking a chicken coop, killing chickens to avenge Shukr. 

"It's perhaps not always a healthy thing to make a mockery out of a dangerous man," he continued, but said it was still a sign of Hezbollah's fall from grace. 

"When Hezbollah took credit for driving us out of southern Lebanon... they were heroes to the Arab world. They were heroes to their own people," Lerman said. "Now, after 12 years in which they've been involved with the Assad regime in butchering the Sunnis of Syria, in which they've brought little but ruin upon Lebanon... It's a different situation."