‘Assad’s forces are conscripts with no motivation, surviving on moldy potatoes and tomatoes’
The Jerusalem Post Podcast with Tamar Uriel-Beeri, Zvika Klein, and Sarah Ben-Nun.
Syria has witnessed a dramatic escalation in recent days as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Salafi-jihadi group led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, launched an unexpected and highly effective offensive against the Syrian Arab Army.
Jonathan Spyer, director of research at the Middle East Forum and a columnist for The Jerusalem Post, explained to Zvika Klein and Tamar Uriel-Beeri during The Jerusalem Post Podcast, that Syria has been divided into three distinct areas of control over the past half-decade. “The Assad regime controls around 60% of the country, including Damascus and the western coastal area. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition backed by the United States, hold about 30% east of the Euphrates River. The remaining 10% in the northwest is home to remnants of the Sunni Arab and Islamist rebellion,” Spyer said.
The northwest enclave is further divided. The northern part is under the Turkish-backed Syrian Interim Government and its armed forces, the Syrian National Army, while the southern section, particularly Idlib province, is governed by the Syrian Salvation Government under HTS.
“Although HTS is officially designated as a terror organization by Turkey, it operates in cooperation with Ankara in practice,” Spyer added.
HTS’s recent offensive coincides with a period of significant weakness for the Assad regime and its allies. Spyer attributed this to several factors, including Iran’s preoccupation with Israeli strikes and Hezbollah’s substantial losses.
“Hezbollah has suffered devastating losses in recent months, with estimates ranging between 3,500 and 4,000 fighters killed. Meanwhile, Russia is deeply engaged in the war in Ukraine, where thousands of its troops are dying weekly,” Spyer explained.
The offensive also highlighted the dire state of Assad’s forces. “Assad’s army is by far the weakest link in the Iran-led axis. It’s underfunded, under-equipped, and staffed by conscripts with no motivation, surviving on moldy potatoes and tomatoes. HTS recognized this as the perfect opportunity to strike,” Spyer said.
The offensive has brought attention to Abu Mohammad al-Julani, HTS’s leader, whom Spyer described as “remarkably adaptable.”
“Julani’s career trajectory is one of the most remarkable outcomes of the Syrian Civil War. Despite originating from the most extreme wing of Salafi-jihadism, he has managed to create a tightly governed area in northwest Syria,” Spyer said.
However, Spyer warned against misinterpreting Julani’s pragmatism as moderation. “It would be wrong to assume that a capable jihadi leader has given up on jihad. Julani is not content to simply be the mayor of Idlib, even if he has proven to be an effective one,” he said.
Spyer added that Julani’s ability to navigate the complexities of Syria’s war has kept him alive, unlike many of his contemporaries in the Salafi-jihadi movement.
Regional and global implications
Spyer dismissed conspiracy theories suggesting coordination between HTS and Israel. “HTS likely recognized that Hezbollah, Iran, and the Assad regime were distracted, creating a perfect storm for their offensive,” he said.
When asked about Israel’s perspective, Spyer highlighted the importance of maintaining a balance of power. “It would not be good for Israel or the West if either side—Assad or HTS—achieved total victory. A resurgent Assad regime backed by Iran and Hezbollah, or a Salafi-jihadi state on Israel’s borders, would be disastrous,” Spye explained.
He added that Israel is unlikely to intervene directly. “Israel’s hands are full with its own security challenges. Letting both sides weaken each other is not necessarily a bad outcome,” Spyer noted.
As HTS advances, concerns have grown over the fate of minority communities in its path. “HTS’s record with non-Muslim and non-Arab populations, such as Kurds and Christians, is not good. This is something the West needs to address,” Spyer said.
While international attention is largely focused on other areas of the Middle East, Spyer cautioned against ignoring the potential humanitarian crisis in Syria. “Large Kurdish and Christian populations are at risk, and their safety must be a priority for Western powers,” he said.
“The Syrian conflict is a microcosm of broader regional tensions, with competing powers vying for influence in a complex and ever-changing landscape,” Spyer concluded.
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