2024 set to be hottest year on record

The year 2024 is poised to become the warmest year on record, with global average temperatures expected to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, likely reaching 1.55 degrees Celsius. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), from January to October 2024, global temperatures were 0.71°C higher than the average from 1991 to 2020, marking the highest record for that period.

"After 10 months of 2024, it is virtually certain that this year will be the hottest ever, and the first year in which global average temperatures exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5 degrees Celsius," Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, stated. She added that this marks a new milestone in global temperature records, necessitating enhanced ambitions at the upcoming climate change conference, COP29.

October 2024 has been recorded as the second warmest October globally, with average temperatures 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels. The ERA5 dataset, which includes billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations around the world, indicates that the annual temperature for 2024 will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, with estimates suggesting it could reach 1.55 degrees Celsius.

The Copernicus report confirms that 2024 will likely be the first calendar year to exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius increase. This threshold is significant, as exceeding it threatens climate catastrophes such as extreme heat, droughts, and rising sea levels. The 1.5°C limit is a symbolic and concerning threshold established in the Paris Agreement to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Samantha Burgess emphasized that recognizing 2024 as the hottest year on record should incentivize more active emission reductions and raise ambition at the next climate change conference. "It will also be the first year that is completely above 1.5ºC of global warming, a milestone never seen in the climate records," she said.

The latest data come ahead of the United Nations COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, starting on November 11, 2024. This conference represents a crucial opportunity for countries to negotiate new goals and a climate financing agreement that allows developing nations to implement mitigation and adaptation measures.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service's observations are based on the ERA5 dataset, which shows that global temperatures have been consistently higher than average across many regions. In particular, temperatures were significantly above average in northern Canada, the central and western United States, northern Tibet, Japan, and Australia.

October 2024 marked the fifteenth month in a 16-month period in which the global average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This pattern indicates how close the world is to surpassing this threshold on a longer-term basis.

The increase in temperature is associated with the El Niño climate phenomenon and anthropogenic factors, reflecting the rapid intensification of climate change effects. El Niño, characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, can lead to record temperatures and more extreme weather.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned that "climate calamity is the new reality. And we're not keeping up." He emphasized the urgent need for adaptation measures in response to the climate crisis.

Experts warn that exceeding the 1.5°C limit threatens climate catastrophes such as extreme heat, droughts, and rising sea levels, forcing more people and ecosystems to the brink of survival. According to scientists, keeping global warming below 1.5°C is crucial to avoid cascading impacts such as droughts, heatwaves, and catastrophic sea level rise.

The latest figures highlight the urgent need for global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions from burning coal, oil, and gas are the main cause of global warming, with the fossil fuel industry being the primary culprit.

As countries prepare for COP29 in Baku, the record heat poses significant challenges for delegates discussing crucial carbon-cutting targets and financing goals to assist developing nations in reducing emissions. The approaching conference has intensified calls for immediate global climate action.

C3S now expects the world to exceed the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5°C around 2030. This longstanding warming trend is driven by human activity, with the fossil fuel industry's incessant emissions of greenhouse gases being the main culprit.

Samantha Burgess added that this increase represents a milestone in global temperature records, necessitating enhanced ambitions at COP29. "This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to increase ambition ahead of the next Climate Change Conference, COP29," she stated.

In October 2024, the ERA5 surface air temperature was 0.80°C above the average for the month from 1991 to 2020. Copernicus observed that precipitation was above average in Europe, with notable impacts on the Iberian Peninsula, northern Italy, and France.

Globally, areas affected by increased rainfall included southern and eastern China, Taiwan, Florida, where Hurricane Milton made landfall, parts of western Australia, and the extreme south of Brazil. The warming of the oceans can affect the distribution of precipitation and the intensity of storms, resulting in more intense downpours and storms.

Copernicus also reported that Arctic sea ice extent in October 2024 was 19% below the average for that month, marking it the fourth lowest value for any October in the satellite record. This continues a series of large negative anomalies observed throughout 2023 and 2024.

Climate scientists warn that every fraction of temperature increase fuels extreme weather, intensifying events such as droughts, heat waves, torrential rains, and floods. Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold would lead to increased heat waves, longer warm seasons, shorter cold seasons, loss of ice cover, difficulty in recovering ice cover, and rising sea levels.

The United Nations warns that without active efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions this century, temperatures may peak at 2.1-2.8°C above pre-industrial levels, which is associated with extreme events of high mortality. Current policies would lead to a "catastrophic" warming of 3.1°C during the century, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

Scientists stress that every tenth of a degree in temperature rise heralds progressively more damaging impacts, and almost all of last year's and this year's temperature records are due to rising greenhouse gas levels.

As the world faces these alarming trends, the urgency for emission reduction measures and climate financing is greater than ever. COP29 in Baku will be a decisive event for global climate action. The expectation is that countries will achieve significant commitments to avoid a scenario of global climate disasters.

Sources: La Croix, Le Monde (Science), Mirror, The Independent, El Diario NY, Perfil, BioBioChile, The Times of Israel, Última Hora, Los Tiempos, El Tiempo, Youm7 (Entertainment), Clarín, La Vanguardia, Axios, The Verge, Environment, Sky News

This article was written in collaboration with generative AI company Alchemiq