How can something this big go away? Survey finds drastic decline in elephant population

A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences revealed a dramatic decline in African elephant populations over the past 53 years. Researchers conducted comprehensive surveys at 475 locations in 37 countries from 1964 to 2016, making it the most thorough assessment of African elephants to date. More than 1,300 counts were included, which were then extrapolated to other areas.

The study, co-led by George Wittemyer, a professor of wildlife conservation at Colorado State University and chair of the scientific board of the conservation group Save the Elephants, found that elephant populations in Africa have drastically declined over the past approximately 50 years. Savanna elephants have declined by about 70% and forest elephants by about 90% on average in the surveyed sites.

"The loss of large mammals is a significant ecological issue for Africa and the planet," said Dave Balfour, a conservation ecologist and co-author of the study.

The main reasons for the decline are poaching, trophy hunting, and habitat loss, with agricultural expansion being a significant factor in habitat loss. Poaching typically involves people killing elephants for their tusks, which are sold illegally on an international black market driven mostly by ivory demand in China and other parts of Asia.

"Poaching and habitat loss are the main drivers of the population declines of African elephants, particularly affecting populations in northern and eastern Africa," stated the study.

In the war-affected Sahel region, particularly in Mali, Chad, and Nigeria, elephant populations have declined sharply due to increased pressures and limited protection, leading to extirpation. George Wittemyer said, "We have lost elephant populations in many countries, especially in the northern Sahel region like Mali, Chad, and Nigeria. Here the threat is very high and security is very low, causing elephants to be completely wiped out."

Some populations of African elephants have disappeared completely, and elephants have vanished from some sites. However, other populations are showing rapid growth. "We have seen real success in a number of places across Africa, but particularly in southern Africa, with strong growth in populations in Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Namibia. For populations showing positive trends, we have had active stewardship and management by the governments or outside groups that have taken on a management role," said George Wittemyer.

The study did not attempt to provide an exact count of African elephants but assessed population trends at each of the surveyed sites rather than providing a unified head count. Estimates suggest that the number of forest elephants is about one-third of the number of savanna elephants. A population estimate by conservationists conducted separately from this study put the two species combined at between 415,000 and 540,000 elephants as of 2016, the last year of the study period.

Counting elephants is complicated and resource-intensive, with surveys of savanna elephants conducted from the air by spotters in planes, while forest elephants must be counted on foot. "Counting elephants is complicated and resource-intensive," noted the study authors.

Poaching has disproportionately affected forest elephants and has led to the destruction of populations of both species in northern and eastern Africa. Agricultural expansion is the top factor in habitat loss for African elephants, significantly contributing to the destruction of forests for agriculture and human settlements.

The researchers hope that identifying success stories where elephant populations are stable or even increasing can contribute to the conservation of the species. George Wittemyer stated, "Learning how and where we can be successful in conserving elephants is as important as recognizing the severity of the decline they have experienced."

Co-authors of the study include Kathleen Gobush from the University of Washington, Fiona Maisels from the Wildlife Conservation Society and the University of Stirling, Dave Balfour from Nelson Mandela University, and Russell Taylor from WWF Namibia. "Understanding how and where trends are different across the range of a species is arguably more important for their conservation than an overall change in abundance, which may only reflect change in the largest populations," said Charles Edwards, a research scientist and co-author of the study.

While the overall decline in elephant numbers is evident, George Wittemyer expressed some optimism: "While the trends are not good, it is important to recognize the successes we have had and continue to have. Learning how and where we can be successful in conserving elephants is as important as recognizing the severity of the decline they have experienced."

African elephants are not only one of the most sentient and intelligent species we share the planet with, but also an incredibly important part of ecosystems in Africa that structures the balance between forest and grasslands, serves as a critical disperser of seeds, and is a species on which a multitude of other species depend for survival.

Regarding the challenges faced, the study noted that each African country has its own wildlife management policies and political system, complicating elephant population assessments. Survey borders changed as elephant populations declined, and as elephant populations declined, some protected spaces were condensed. The study makes clear "how quickly even something as large and conspicuous as elephants can simply disappear," said co-author George Wittemyer.

Sources: The Straits Times, Phys.org, Asharq Al-Awsat, DW (Deutsche Welle), The Business Standard, France 24, The Hindu, ORF Science

This article was written in collaboration with generative AI company Alchemiq