Donald Trump holds slight edge over Kamala Harris among Arab American voters, new poll finds

Former president Donald Trump outperforms Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming US presidential election among Arab-American voters nationwide by a margin of two percent, according to a poll conducted by Arab News and YouGov that was released on Tuesday.

Overall, the upcoming election will see Arab-American voters turn out in higher numbers, which the poll projects to reach 87%. Seven percent are currently undecided, and 6% say they do not intend to vote.

When asked about which candidate they were likely to vote for, Trump currently leads Harris at 45% of the Arab-American vote, while Harris trailed by two points at 43%. Third-party candidate Jill Stein would receive 4% of the vote, while 6% were polled as undecided.

According to the survey, Arab-Americans primarily think their votes are important in the November election, with 80% of voters polled believing that their vote matters.

Top priorities in 2024 election

The poll lists the state of the Israel-Hamas War and the Palestinian cause as a top priority, with 29% of voters seeing the conflict as the most important issue, followed by the cost of living and the economy.

When Arab-American voters in the sample were asked about which candidate would be “better for the Middle East,” Trump and Harris were tied at 38%. However, when asked about which candidate would be better at resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Trump held an edge of 39% over Harris’s 33%.

However, this sample of Arab-American voters surveyed perceived Trump as more supportive of Israel’s current government at 69%, with Harris following closely at 60% and third-party candidate Stein at 23%.

The poll also touched upon the future of the conflict and possible conclusions. Half of Arab-Americans polled believed in seeking a two-state solution with shared governance over Jerusalem, 34% believed that there should be one state where Israelis and Palestinians have equal rights, and 9% stated that they were unsure.

Regarding the political landscape of the Middle East and US involvement in the region, over a third of Arab-Americans polled believed that the US should decrease its military presence in the Middle East (38%), while under a third said that the US should increase its presence in the region (27%).

When asked about Iran and Iranian proxies’ influence in the region, 41% of Arab-Americans polled believe that the US must resort to diplomacy and offer incentives to the Iranian regime. In comparison, 32% believe the US must apply maximum diplomatic pressure and more sanctions on the regime. 4% believe that the US should go to war and use military force against Iran.

In terms of domestic policy and experiences in the US, half of those polled said that they had not faced racism, harassment, or hate crimes due to their ethnicity or religion. However, the other half, approximately 46%, said they had faced discrimination. In terms of presidential candidates, Arab-American voters surveyed believe that racism and hate crimes against Arab-Americans are likely to increase under a Trump administration rather than a Harris administration.

The voting sample also faced questions about domestic protests, specifically whether or not they attended pro-Palestinian demonstrations in the US. More than half of the sample did not attend demonstrations (59%), while a bit over one-third had (36%). Five percent said that they preferred not to answer.

When asked about their voting history and previous elections, the poll revealed that Arab-Americans favored Trump at higher rates in 2016, with 37% voting for him, while 32% reported not voting at all. Only 27% of those surveyed stated that they voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

However, following the 2020 elections, these responses shifted, with 43% of respondents voting for President Joe Biden, 34% for President Trump, and 21% casting no votes at all.

The survey was conducted using a sample of 500 Arab Americans across the United States from September 26 to October 1, 2024. The survey data have a margin of error of +/- 5.93%.