US-Israel alliance to endure, regardless of election results - analysis
By HERB KEINONNOVEMBER 4, 2024 20:46Updated: NOVEMBER 5, 2024 08:57 e President Kamala Harris in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S. August 20, 2024 and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Bedminster, New Jersey, U.S., August 15, 2024 are seen in a combination of file photographs.(photo credit: REUTERS/Marco Bello, Jeenah Moon/File Photo)
As we all know, the simple truth is that reality is neither black nor white.
Voting in the US presidential elections is a binary choice – one casts a ballot for x or y.During US presidential campaigns – and especially during the now-concluding US election campaign – the candidates try to convince the voters that binary elections will produce binary outcomes. Either x wins and all is good, or y wins, and all turns to dirt. Either salvation or disaster, paradise or purgatory.While the choices are indeed binary, the significance of the outcome is seldom so. It is rarely the case in American history that the election of one candidate over the other has heralded an unmitigated age of disaster or, on the other side of the spectrum, a clear age of glory.As we all know, the simple truth is that reality is neither black nor white.AdvertisementThat simple truth is something that millions of Americans who will be casting their ballots in a very consequential election on Tuesday would do well to keep in mind. Actually, they would do well to keep that in mind on Wednesday morning, after the ballots are counted, because then it will be important to realize that whatever the result, the American sky is not falling.At least not yet. At least not so quickly. At least not as a result of one election.
US presidential election race: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris (illustrative) (credit: REUTERS, SHUTTERSTOCK)Though opponents have cast former president Donald Trump as a fascist who will end American democracy, and though Vice President Kamala Harris has been cast by her opponents as a communist who will destroy the American system, the victory of one over the other will not signal the end of America as we know it.
Don’t mistake hyperventilating campaign hyperbole for reality. There are checks and balances and guardrails in place to ensure that the doomsday scenarios each side predicts will unfold if the other side wins will not come to pass.The same is clear when it comes to the US-Israel relationship.AdvertisementObviously, the identity of the president is critically important. Obviously, the US Commander-in-Chief sets the tone in the relationship. Still, the US-Israel relationship – thankfully – is much more than just the relationship between the president and the prime minister.The eight-year period from 2009 through 2016, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s tenure overlapped with that of former President Barack Obama, is a case in point.The relationship between the two men with conflicting worldviews – one conservative, the other liberal – was rocky from the beginning and remained tense throughout.There were major differences on critical issues – from the settlements to the diplomatic process with the Palestinians to Iran – that caused major headaches and heartaches in both capitals.Yet overall, the US-Israel relationship flourished during those years.The disagreements and conflicts were between the leaders, but overall, the relationship between the states blossomed because there are many different components to the US-Israel relationship. Relations at the top are an important component; ties between the prime minister and the president are key. But it is not the only component. You also have Congress, the Pentagon, business ties, and public opinion.Regarding Congress, the outgoing Congress was very supportive, and there is no reason to think the next one will be that much different. In fact, some of the more critical voices in Congress – such as Representatives Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush – will not be there this time, defeated in the primaries.The defense and intelligence ties are as good as they have ever been, with intimate coordination. The closeness of that relationship is evident in the frequent visits to Israel by top US generals and was on full display with the recent US assistance in knocking Iranian missiles and rockets out of the sky, as well as the placement here of the US THAAD missile defense system.Although since October 7, Israel has primarily been on the receiving end of this relationship, it is not only a one-way street.Granted, Israel receives billions in military aid from the US, as well as critical weapons platforms and munitions, but it also gives intelligence, tactics, and technology. Before the war, the two militaries were training together at an unprecedented level, not only to help the IDF but also to help the US military. And that training will undoubtedly pick up with even greater intensity after the war, with the US eager to learn from Israel’s battle experiences.Up until October 7, business was booming, with all the major hi-tech companies maintaining a presence here not because they were Zionists but because they wanted to tap into the country’s creative workforce.The trade of goods and services between the two countries rose from $3.5 billion in 1982 to $50.6 billion in 2022 with Israel enjoying a $10 billion trade surplus. That trajectory, too, is sure to continue after the war.As far as public opinion is concerned, not all of America is on the New York Times editorial board or the Columbia or Harvard faculties. Sympathy for Israel remains high in the polls, although it has slipped among Democrats and younger demographics. That is a worrying trend for the future but not something that poses an immediate threat to the strength and resilience of the relationship during the tenure of the next president, whoever that may be.Whoever wins on Tuesday – Trump or Harris – disagreements over policy will emerge. While they are close allies, the interests of the two countries do not always converge.However, when those disagreements emerge, as they inevitably will, they will need to be put into the wider perspective of overall ties between the countries.Even when the ties between the president and the prime minister were tense, as was the case during the Netanyahu-Obama years and parts of the Netanyahu-Biden years, the relations between the two countries remained strong and proved very resilient.There is no reason to think this will not continue, regardless of who wins Tuesday night.
