On the axis: China, Taiwan, and lessons from Israel’s conflicts

As 2025 approaches, the specter of a global East-West confrontation looms larger than ever. The war between Russia and Ukraine will drag on into its fourth year in February, and the Middle East remains in turmoil following Hamas’s October 2023 attacks on Israel, which have ignited broader regional conflicts. Israel, entangled in battles with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, now finds itself on the brink of direct war with Iran.

Against this volatile backdrop, the Asia-Pacific region remains a potential flash point, with China’s growing assertiveness stoking fears of open conflict. Nowhere is this tension more palpable than in Taiwan. Known for its cutting-edge technology – its semiconductor industry accounts for over 20% of the global supply – Taiwan is a beacon of stability in the shadow of its authoritarian neighbor. As Beijing ramps up its military and political pressure, fears of invasion have reached new heights.

Despite its precarious position, Taiwan has drawn inspiration from an unlikely ally: Israel. Both nations, defined by their resilience and strategic importance, face existential threats while relying on close ties with the United States. Taiwan’s modern identity, shaped by a turbulent history with mainland China, offers insights into its growing alignment with Israel and the challenges of safeguarding sovereignty in a fraught international landscape.

Why the tensions?

In 1949, the nationalist government of China, led by Chiang Kai-shek, retreated to Taiwan after losing the civil war to Mao Zedong’s Communists. Since then, Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), and the Communist-controlled mainland, or the People’s Republic of China (PRC), have both claimed to be the legitimate government of China, creating a political impasse that persists to this day.

Taiwan’s political status is both complex and contentious. Although the ROC was a founding member of the United Nations, it lost its seat in 1971 when the UN recognized Communist China as the legitimate representative of the country. For decades, Taiwan maintained its claim as the sole government of all Chinese territory. However, in 1991, it revised its position, ceasing to view the Chinese Communist Party as a rebellious faction and acknowledging the PRC’s authority over mainland China.

The PRC asserts sovereignty over Taiwan and refuses to establish diplomatic relations with any country that recognizes the ROC. Taiwan, meanwhile, maintains official ties with only 11 UN member states and the Holy See. Most other nations engage with Taiwan through unofficial channels, utilizing representative offices that function as de facto embassies. Taiwan’s role in international organizations is similarly constrained, as PRC pressure often leads to its exclusion or limits its participation to non-state status.

Within Taiwan, political divisions revolve around the island’s future relationship with China. Some factions advocate for eventual reunification, emphasizing shared Chinese heritage, while others champion formal independence and a distinct Taiwanese identity. In recent years, both camps have tempered their rhetoric to appeal to a broader electorate.

China’s “One China” policy asserts that there is only one China, with Taiwan as an inseparable part. The PRC considers itself the sole legitimate government of all China, opposing any attempts by Taiwan to declare independence. Countries wishing to maintain diplomatic ties with Beijing must recognize this stance, severing official relations with Taiwan.

While most nations adhere to China’s policy for economic and political reasons, many maintain unofficial ties with Taiwan. The United States, for example, acknowledges the PRC’s claim while supporting Taiwan through the Taiwan Relations Act and arms sales. Taiwan rejects the PRC’s interpretation, with its internal politics divided between upholding the majority who wish to uphold the status quo and a smaller number pursuing formal independence. The One China policy continues to be a critical flashpoint in global diplomacy, shaping US-China relations, cross-strait tensions, and regional stability.

Taiwan and Israel

Due to Taiwan’s reduced diplomatic pool, Israel maintained on-off relations with both mainland China and Taiwan since its independence. The Jewish state finally established trade relations with Taiwan in the early 1990s, with the opening of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Tel Aviv, and Israel opening a similar office in Taiwan.

“Taiwan and Israel have become even closer since October 7,” Taipei’s Representative in Israel Ya-Ping (Abby Lee) told The Jerusalem Post. “This is based on our long-term friendship and partnership, and also the challenges that result from what we call the evil axis – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. This is a common challenge to the democracies in Taiwan and Israel.

“Although we are distant geographically, we are neighbors by values. We hope we can find a way to increase our cooperation in cybersecurity or disinformation, because we see nowadays our enemies have gone down the hybrid warfare route; not just the traditional military actions try to undermine our countries’ safety. They are also trying to undermine the democracies that the two countries uphold.”

The concept of an “axis of evil” is one that was also brought up to the Post during a September sit-down with Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-Lung, who stated, “When it comes to the Middle East’s issues and Taiwan’s relations with Israel, simply put we are now seeing a very clear manifestation of the ‘axis of evil’ or CRINK – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.”

He reiterated that “intelligence exchanges are a must, and technology cooperation is very important between the two countries, especially technology related to national defense and security.”

Cybersecurity is a major issue Taipei must deal with on a daily basis. Taiwan faces around five million cyberattacks from China every day. In 2023, about 50% of the total cyberattacks in the Asia-Pacific were directed at the island from mainland China, so cybersecurity has become a main priority for the Taiwanese government – something it could learn more about from Israel.

“I’m sure that is a beneficial area for [Taiwan and Israel] to find a way to work together on cybersecurity,” Lee noted. “We have been dealing with misinformation or information manipulation by external forces. For many years, we have been providing our knowledge and our experience with like-minded countries, and from the other side, they also share their playbooks.”

Su Tzu-yun of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) also emphasized the historical bond between Taiwan and Israel, despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties.

“The Republic of China was among the first countries to recognize Israel,” he noted to the Post. “This goodwill continues today, even in the absence of diplomatic relations. Both President Lai Ching-te and former president Tsai Ing-wen have openly supported Israel’s right to self-defense.”

Su also proposed three main areas for bilateral cooperation between Israel and Taiwan. “First, economic complementarity. Israel excels in design, while Taiwan is a leader in manufacturing. A memorandum of understanding or the establishment of a banking presence could serve as the foundation for expanded trade,” he said. “Second, targeted industry collaboration. I believe commercial drones are a promising avenue. With declining trust in DJI, a Taiwan-Israel partnership could dominate this market.”

He also emphasized civil defense as a key area of mutual interest. “Taiwan respects Israel’s courage and resilience. We have long studied Israel’s civil defense systems and reserve forces as a model. By sharing expertise, we can both enhance our ability to respond to security threats, from climate change to regional instability.

“Taiwan and Israel share common values and challenges. By working together, we can not only strengthen our own resilience but also contribute to global stability.”

Regional tensions

Tensions have been on the rise in the Asia-Pacific region in the past few weeks. Incidents between China and the Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Vietnam, involving both civilian fishing vessels and military aircraft, have underscored several nations’ vulnerabilities in dealing with their larger neighbor, as China seeks to extend its influence across the South China Sea and the wider Pacific region as a whole.

Last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to work with the incoming US administration of Donald Trump, as Xi held his final talks with outgoing President Joe Biden on several topics, including Taiwan. On Taiwan, the leaders appear to have had a sharp exchange. Biden called for an end to Beijing’s “destabilizing” military activity around the island, according to the White House.

Xi, in turn, responded that the “separatist activities” of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te were incompatible with peace and stability, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Lai plans to stop in Hawaii and maybe Guam on a sensitive visit that is sure to anger Beijing in the coming weeks.

“China’s persistent military provocations around Taiwan are the greatest source of damage to regional peace and stability and a major threat to global economic prosperity,” the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

Post-US election

The US, which is Taiwan’s biggest supporter both militarily and financially, follows the Taiwan Act of 1979, which, while not recognizing Taiwan as an independent sovereign country, does define “it to be the policy of the United States to preserve and promote extensive, close, and friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan, as well as the people on the China mainland and all other people of the Western Pacific area.”

Recent US policy ensures the superpower “will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.” It is US policy “to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.”

In the past week, Japan and the US have begun advancing a joint military plan to address any potential Taiwan crisis, including deploying missile units to strategic locations such as Japan’s Nansei Islands and the Philippines.

In the wider Pacific region, China’s competition with the United States for influence is also evident, as Beijing has steadily reduced the number of Taiwan’s formal allies in the region. Taiwan’s President Lai is set to visit three of the island’s remaining Pacific allies – Palau, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu – starting next Saturday. Such diplomatic visits are typically accompanied by stopovers in the United States, often angering Beijing.

“Taiwan is standing on the first line to defend the expansion of authoritarian China,” Representative Lee stated. “But we believe we already know that Chinese strategic ambition is beyond Taiwan. Its strategic ambition is to dominate the whole Indo-Pacific. So that’s why we see there is more and more tension between China and the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam on maritime issues, especially in the South China Sea. It is challenging for countries in the Indo-Pacific to maintain the current status quo, and also challenging for all the countries in Asia Pacific to face Chinese gray-zone tactics.

“We have seen the Chinese use economic coercion,” Lee noted. “They weaponize the economy or trade to bully other countries to deepen the cooperative relationship with Taiwan. We are very happy to see that more and more countries are looking at Taiwan on Taiwan’s own merits. Our advantage is not a zero-sum game between Taiwan and China.

“Taiwan is a very good trade partner to work with, so we do see more and more countries are more open to deepen the political and economic relationship with Taiwan, and also is a wakening call for many countries to diversify their trading partners or their export market other than China.”

The role of the US under President-elect Trump is intriguing for Asia-Pacific watchers. His promise to introduce tariffs on China in order to boost the US economy has been offset by his “America First” mentality, leaving some in Taipei to worry about losing some of the support of its closest ally.

As such, ahead of the incoming administration, Taiwan is preparing to recalibrate its defense strategy and diplomatic engagement as it navigates a second term under Trump. Following Trump’s remarks that Taiwan should pay “protection money” for its defense, the island is exploring substantial new arms deals to reinforce its commitment to self-defense and bolster its strategic partnership with Washington.

“Taiwan and Israel have been winning bipartisan support from Congress,” Lee told the Post. “We are very grateful to see that the support from the United States on Taiwan is rock solid. We’d like to congratulate [Trump], to congratulate the American people and American democracy.

Reports suggest Taiwan is contemplating large-scale acquisitions, potentially including advanced missile systems, radar platforms, and munitions. With an existing order backlog of $20 billion, including a recent $2b. missile system purchase, Taiwan aims to demonstrate its seriousness about enhancing its defensive capabilities.

“We believe the US will have continuity in its policy on Taiwan, because the lynchpin of the Indo-Pacific is relying on Taiwan’s peaceful status quo,” Lee stated. “This is a shared interest to every country in the world, including the United States. For the past few years, we have seen the relationship between Taiwan and the US getting closer across different spectrums. We know that President Trump is a strong advocate of making America great again, and Taiwan is a reliable partner.”

Trump’s second term introduces both opportunities and uncertainties for Taiwan. However, Trump’s demands for greater financial contributions from allies may challenge Taiwan to further prove its commitment.

Taiwan and the US already have strong trade ties, particularly in the semiconductor industry, one that links Taiwan to the rest of the world and one the island is rightly proud of. Taiwan’s largest semiconductor manufacturing company, TSMC, invested almost $65b. in Arizona to build three plants to manufacture semiconductor chips – the highest foreign direct investment in Arizona state and the highest record in greenfield investment in US history – and last week the US Commerce Department said it has finalized a $6.6b. government subsidy for the production plants.

“Our semiconductor industry is kind of like a lifeline,” Lee expressed. “It is a silicon shield for Taiwan’s national security. For small countries like Taiwan and Israel, we always need to keep critical technology under our control. That is our leverage, and that is our tool to strengthen our national capabilities.”

Lessons for Taiwan

Taiwan has watched Israel’s wars battling Iran and its proxies with growing interest from a military perspective, too. The Republic of China Armed Forces, as the Taiwanese military is officially known, and the IDF, which both have civilian conscription, share several similarities in how they approach defense, particularly in their use of large-scale, ground-based air defense systems. Both countries focus heavily on these systems to protect their small territories from massive missile and drone threats.

The Taiwan Strait, the body of water that separates the island from the mainland, is viewed as a potential hot spot for major conflict, with China’s military power representing a serious challenge.

A critical lesson from the Iran-Israel conflict revolves around the huge disparity between the cost of launching missiles or drones and the cost of defending against them. This is important for the Taiwanese because whilst a ground invasion is possible, the time, effort, and cost to transport troops across the strait would diminish the Chinese capabilities. Drones, surface-to-surface missiles, and aerial bombardments are the more probable methods of attack.

While the Iranian strikes on Israel in April and September were relatively inexpensive, estimated at less than $100 million, the efforts by the United States and Israel to intercept these attacks cost far more – between $1b. and $1.35b. This difference underscores a significant problem: adversaries like Iran can produce precision-guided missiles and drones cheaply, while defending against these low-cost threats requires sophisticated, expensive systems. The interception of a single missile or drone often involves firing multiple defense missiles to ensure a hit, making defense efforts extremely costly.

One major factor differentiating Taiwan from Israel is geography. Israel is protected to some extent by its distance from its enemies, particularly Iran, whose missiles and drones must travel over 1,000 kilometers to strike. This distance helps limit the number and range of weapons Iran can deploy. On the other hand, the Taiwan Strait is only about 130 kilometers wide, allowing China to launch missiles much more easily and from much closer proximity. This geographic advantage would make it much easier for China to overwhelm Taiwan’s defense systems. Additionally, Taiwan’s limited resources for air defense further exacerbate the situation, especially compared to Israel’s robust defense budget and support.

“Israelis’ persistence and determination to safeguard the homeland and your security are always an inspiration for many countries, including Taiwan,” Lee told the Post. “We should learn a lot from the Israel-Hamas War, including that you have to be committed to enhancing your national defense capabilities by injecting enough budget to advance the technology; build up your indigenous defense industries; the resilience of the society. The civil mobilizations of reserve forces is also one of the valuable lessons for Taiwan to learn.

“We know that we have to fight for ourselves, but support from our friends over intelligence sharing from like-minded countries is also important while we are facing the threat from our enemies.”

Taiwan’s air defense is further limited by its reliance on F-16 fighters, which have shorter ranges than the advanced long-range fighters Israel deploys, such as the F-15. Taiwan’s limited aerial refueling capabilities mean that Chinese missile and drone strikes could be launched from much closer to Taiwan’s borders, making it harder for Taiwanese forces to intercept them.

“We have been vigilant over China’s movements,” Representative Lee stated. “It’s hard to give a timetable [on any potential attack], but our strategy is to make the Chinese leadership believe it is not the day to attack Taiwan, and they would have to pay very high political costs. They have to face grave consequences if they attack Taiwan.”

China’s role in the Middle East

China’s role in the Middle East and its fluctuating relationship with Israel is also worth examining, as it occasionally presents the Israelis with a moral dilemma. China’s response to the October 7 Hamas attacks was less than condemnatory. Initially, it called for both sides to “remain calm” and resolve the conflict through a two-state solution, without mentioning the hostages held by Hamas or condemning the group’s actions.

Since then, China’s stance has shifted to show increasing support for the Palestinians and harsher criticism of Israel, and China’s rhetoric has become more critical as the war with Hamas and Hezbollah progresses, with the Chinese ambassador to the UN labeling Israel’s actions as an “occupation.”

Despite condemning Israeli policies as “collective punishment,” China has not condemned the murder of Chinese citizens by Hamas. It has maintained direct contact with Hamas, which it does not classify as a terrorist organization. In March, Chinese envoy Wang Kejian met with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Qatar, with China reaffirming its view that Hamas is an integral part of the Palestinian national movement.

At the UN, China supported Palestinian statehood and criticized Israeli military actions, while remaining silent on Iran’s aggression against Israel. China’s foreign minister even downplayed Iran’s rocket and drone strikes on Israel, framing them as a limited act of self-defense.

Last year, former foreign minister Eli Cohen raised concerns with China regarding the spread of antisemitism on Chinese social media, as well as the lack of a clear condemnation of the Hamas massacres. However, China’s embassy in Israel remained silent until February, when the Chinese ambassador published an article marking the Chinese Year of the Dragon without mentioning the conflict.

While Beijing’s statements have been largely critical of Israel, its practical actions have been more neutral. China has refrained from sending additional workers to Israel, though Chinese workers already in Israel continue projects like the Tel Aviv Light Rail system. Chinese companies have also been involved in humanitarian efforts, supporting Israeli soldiers and border communities.

China’s foreign policy toward the Israel-Hamas conflict reflects its broader geopolitical ambitions. In a joint statement with France, President Xi condemned violence but avoided mentioning Hamas or Iranian involvement. By supporting the Palestinians and opposing Israeli policies, China seeks to reshape the geopolitical order and strengthen ties with Arab countries, while managing its complex relationship with Israel.

“China has become a major security threat and is gradually replacing Russia as a key player in the Middle East,” Su of the INDSR told the Post. “In this context, collaboration between Taiwan and Israel serves mutual interests, as Taipei’s presence helps counterbalance Beijing’s growing influence in the region.”

Detailing China’s activities in the Middle East, Su explained, “Beijing is exporting ideological tools, such as its ‘social credit system,’ which appeals to regimes based on royal or religious authority. Additionally, China continues to exchange resources, supplying Arab nations with products and technology in return for energy. Their arms exports – particularly drones, antiaircraft missiles, and even ballistic missiles – further threaten regional stability, especially Israel’s security.”

He also alleged, “China provides both direct and indirect support to terrorist organizations, including Hamas, aiding the construction of tunnels and rockets that destabilize the region.”

2025

Taiwan and Israel find themselves facing starkly different but equally existential challenges. Both nations rely on native ingenuity, resilience, and the support of like-minded allies to safeguard their futures. While Taiwan can draw inspiration from Israel’s military successes and strategies in defending the Jewish state, particularly in air defense and civil resilience, it must tailor these lessons to its unique geography and geopolitical constraints should any future conflict arise.

Israel’s nuanced relationship with China adds another dimension. Historically, Beijing has walked a fine line in its dealings with Israel, balancing economic ties and technology partnerships against its strategic alignment with Iran and the Arab world. As China seeks to expand its influence in the Middle East, a strengthened relationship with Israel could serve as a stabilizing force and a bridge to broader cooperation. However, for this potential to be realized, it would be imperative for the region to be peaceful rather than at war.