What China's goal to unite Palestinians means, particularly for Hamas and the West Bank - analysis

Beijing hosted fourteen Palestinian groups from July 21-23 in a high-level meeting that is supposed to help bring dialogue and “reconciliation.” This has major implications because it could mean bringing together Hamas, which carried out the October 7 attack, with Fatah, the leading group in the Palestinian Authority.

If the Palestinian groups agree to more unity under China’s guidance, it could put Israel in a difficult position. This is because it would enable the backers of Hamas, such as Russia, Turkey and Qatar, to push for Hamas to play a larger role in the West Bank.

China’s Xinua media said that “at the invitation of the Chinese side, high-level representatives of 14 Palestinian factions held a reconciliation dialogue in Beijing from July 21 to 23, and the Palestinian factions inked a declaration on ending division and strengthening unity.” The report further added that “it is the first time that 14 Palestinian factions have gathered in Beijing for a reconciliation dialogue, bringing precious hope to the suffering Palestinian people.”

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement said that some leaks to the media about the meetings in Beijing had incorrectly made it seem that PIJ would recognize Israel. The terrorist group is backed by Iran and is seen as an Iranian proxy. It has numerous members in Gaza and the West Bank, particularly in Jenin.

According to the pro-Iran Al-Mayadeen media, a member of the Political Bureau of Islamic Jihad, Ihsan Ataya, said that the group did not agree to any formula that stipulates international resolutions that would lead to recognition of the legitimacy of the “entity,” meaning Israel. In fact, PIJ wants the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to withdraw recognition of the Jewish state. It demanded in Beijing to create an “emergency committee” to “manage the battle” against Israel.

Other reports about the meeting indicated that Hamas and Fatah had agreed to end decades of divisions. This kind of talk has happened in the past. However, there are long memories about how Hamas forced Fatah out of Gaza in 2007, killing its members and carrying out a coup there, which set the stage for 16 years of destructive rule in Gaza and endless wars that led to the October 7 attack.

According to Reuters, senior Hamas official Hussam Badran praised the Beijing meeting and asserted that it could lead to a unity government for the Palestinian Authority. This would be a major challenge for Israel because it would essentially bring Hamas to power in the West Bank. This is the situation that loomed back in 2006 after Palestinian legislative elections.

ACCORDING TO CNN, “Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the agreement was ‘dedicated to the great reconciliation and unity of all 14 factions.’” He went on to say that “the core outcome is that the PLO is the sole legitimate representative of all Palestinian people… an agreement has been reached on post-Gaza war governance and the establishment of a provisional national reconciliation government.”

The CNN report also said that Hamas representative Mousa Abu Marzook also spotlighted the “course of reconciliation.” He said that “we’re at a historic junction. Our people are rising up in their efforts to struggle... [October 7] changed a lot, both in the international and regional landscape.”

Hamas's goals of finding a greater role in the West Bank

This illustrates that Hamas is using the meetings in China to work its way into a greater role in the West Bank while continuing to see October 7 as a victory. It’s important to note, as the CNN article helpfully does, that “Beijing has not explicitly condemned Hamas for its October 7 attack on Israel.”

The Beijing meetings have, so far, been greeted with only minimal interest in the wider region. Iran doesn’t appear to be playing up the meetings and neither are Gulf countries. That could change if Iran and the Gulf states think that this meeting has a real chance of success. It is likely that many countries in the region are cynical about the chances for real reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah.

Many countries also quietly oppose Hamas, and those that back the terrorist group, like Iran, may have other goals for the West Bank. Tehran, for instance, has sought to destabilize Jordan during this current war.

Overall, it is clear that the goal of Iran, Qatar and Turkey is to bring Hamas to power in the West Bank. They each have different ways of achieving that goal. Iran would prefer to feed the growing lawlessness in the northern West Bank, which could lead the Palestinian Authority to further erode there. For instance, clashes in Tulkarm on July 23 showed how terrorist groups, such as Hamas, are seeking a greater foothold in the West Bank.

SINCE OCTOBER 7, there has been a lot of maneuvering behind the scenes to see how Hamas and other groups might use the attacks to further their goals in the West Bank. The clashes in Tulkarm and other battles in the West Bank over the last year illustrate that Iran-backed groups are gaining strength there. They are seeking to stockpile explosives for use in improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and they are acquiring large numbers of weapons, especially M-4 or M-16 style rifles. These are increasingly seen at marches and memorials and there are increased threats to Israel.

The goal of October 7, in the eyes of the countries that back Hamas, is to bring the group to power in the West Bank. Israel’s goal since 2007 has been to keep Gaza and the West Bank separate and to isolate Hamas in Gaza. The war since October has not resulted in Hamas being defeated or removed from power in the embattled coastal enclave.

This is why the Beijing meetings are important. In the absence of Israel defeating Hamas, it will continue to leverage support from Beijing, Ankara, Tehran and Doha to grow its power and seek a larger regional role. Hamas leaders reside in Doha and easily fly back and forth around the region. Hamas has not been isolated because of the atrocities of October 7, rather it has been strengthened in some ways. The Beijing meetings were an example of this strength and clout.