Second Cold War? China, Russia defy West with ‘Beijing Declaration’ - analysis

This last week saw an interesting development in the inner Palestinian arena, as Hamas and Fatah officials were among signers of a declaration of unity under Russian and Chinese auspices.

Signed by major Palestinian terrorist organizations, including Muslim Brotherhood branch Hamas, Islamic Republic aficionado Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Marxist-oriented Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP,) as well as organizations no longer formally recognized as terror groups despite their admitted and active participation in both the October 7 massacre and other violent acts, such as Fatah and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP).

The “Beijing Declaration” as it was branded featured nothing new nor did it delve into too many details. The Palestinian factions agreed to commit to the establishment of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, reaffirmed the Palestinians’ right to ‘resist occupation,’ pledged to combat the siege on Gaza and any alleged Israeli attempts of evacuation, rejected any foreign intervention in the question of the “day after” in Gaza, expressed support for ‘the resistance,’ and commended the shaheeds and the prisoners.

The declaration also claimed that the factions will work to form a unity government which would wield power over both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and it even featured a clause committing to prepare the ground for the carrying out of general elections and a “developing” of the PLO.

The familiar content of the declaration notwithstanding, the prospects and auspices were ostensibly the main variants this time. Past attempts have been made to reconcile the bitter Islamist and Muslim-nationalist rivals, but they were usually overseen by Arab states, symbolizing the Arab interest – and more importantly the global disinterest – in the issue of Palestinian reconciliation.

This time, however, Russia and China, both mentioned cordially in the declaration, were involved as both main actors and hosts, which clearly calls for an explanation.

The question that arises is: what do two of the largest superpowers in the world in terms of economy, population and territory find in the inner bickering of an Islamist murderous group with another very-Muslim-yet-more-nationalist murderous group, both numbering no more than a few millions and both located thousands of miles away from Moscow and Beijing?

Three interrelated explanations come to mind.

The question of the day after

The first explanation that comes to mind is the timing. Roughly nine months after the October 7 massacre and into the retaliatory war, both Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant have hinted in the past few weeks that the intensive part of the war on Hamas would be over soon, paving the way to the looming ‘day after’ issue.

Brokering a deal between the main parties affected from the ‘day after’ and involved in one of the most widely covered wars would allow the great rivals of the US to have a stake in overseeing the implementation of the day after while having a foot in the door.

In this context it is worth pondering whether, if Israel is seen by its great ally as a bastion of democracy and Western values in the midst of an ensuing totalitarian jungle, perhaps these rival actors would want to see the Palestinian state as a bastion of disdain for the West, all the while contributing to Israel’s most immediate adversaries.

The global theorem

The second possible explanation lies in deep economic and political questions of rivalry. Hamas leaders have repeatedly stated that one of the reasons they launched their murderous campaign against Israeli communities was to annul any progress toward normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Though the fight against normalization has religious and political repercussions, some analysts suggested that Israeli-Saudi normalization would further facilitate the energy bridge announced by US President Joe Biden which aimed to connect India with Europe through the Arabian Peninsula and Israel.

This would’ve been a devastating blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin in his quest to ensure Russian domination over energy supply to Europe, a matter clearly demonstrated during the invasion of Ukraine and the ‘mysterious’ cutting of natural gas supply during the winter to those who acted too starkly against Russia.

It should be stressed again that this is not to say that Hamas’s launch of the October 7 massacre was coordinated with Russia; rather that this was a converging of interests between many actors for whom normalization may be seen as a serious threat.

For this reason, Hamas is seen as an asset for the anti-Western bloc, echoing the words of Hamas leader Osama Hamdan who thanked Russia and China in a webinar a couple of months ago for their rejection of the criminalization of Hamas at the UNSC, adding that there is “an understanding on the Russian and Chinese side that the power of this axis of resistance is in favor of the international role of Russia and China.” If his words are true, perhaps Russia and China want to make sure specifically that Hamas will be left in charge the ‘day after’.

The second Cold War

And perhaps this Russian-Chinese interest in Palestinian reconciliation is in fact a method of strengthening an anti-Western bloc as a whole.

The war in Gaza created ripple effects across Western nations, triggering a generation of self-loathing young citizens to take to the streets and express their disdain and disgust towards the countries they live in, their heritage and their history. These youngsters are filled with hate for their country, its values, its freedoms, its history – undoubtedly stained, yes –  and even their own security forces. Examples of this vary, from calls of ‘down with US imperialism’ in protests, referring to cops as ‘pigs’ on social media.

While these convictions are undoubtedly sincere on the individual level, they are inflamed by the West’s adversaries through social media and academy. In the US, participants were NGOs related to the Chinese Communist Party such as the People’s Forum and even North Korea sympathizers such as Nodutdol.

On the other hand Qatar’s financial tentacles, through the acquisition of entire faculties, promote anti-Western sentiment, as well as by fanning the flames of divisive issues in American politics such as the case of AJ+, a social media publisher owned by Al Jazeera. Iran is also present with the Mapping Project and religious centers. NGOs openly swear allegiance to Qasem Suleimani and the supreme leader of Iran, as do the Muslim Brotherhood which pushes all the while through lobby organizations, NGOs and religious groups across the country.

All of these converge in the attempt to recreate a bi-polar world, in which “The West” stands against “the global south.” They brand the West as violent, colonialist and exploitative; and the South as peaceful, indigenous and exploited, forgetting “global southern” imperialism, suppression of indigenous ethnic groups and rejection of self-determination for peoples in their empires’ domain.

Nevertheless, this time it appears that the “global south” bloc has learned its lesson, focusing on pushing, pulling and exercising pressures from within, popularly dubbed “breaking the house with the master’s tools.”

What unites all these loosely related groups is their hatred of the West, their tyrannical politics, and their open endorsement of an organization which murdered thousands of innocent civilians.

Making sure that Hamas stays relevant, and promoting Hamas-Fatah rapprochement, sends a message of ‘uniting the bloc,’ and taking charge of the affairs of the so-called ‘Global South’.

Russia and China are ideologically as distant as can be from caliphate-seeking jihadist militias such as Hamas. Russia and China might seem to be mirroring US Cold War actions in Vietnam, Korea and Afghanistan. However, in their quest to block the US and its perceived ‘agents’ in pursuit of a bipolar world, it seems they find that endorsing terrorists who burn families alive, and kidnap toddlers and babies, is a must.