The collapse of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a looming reality - opinion

Bosnia and Herzegovina emerged from the crucible of the Bosnian War (1992-1995) hamstrung by a debilitating peace agreement – The Dayton Agreement of 1995 – brokered under the auspices of the United States, which brought an end to the bloodshed and established a complex governance structure aimed at accommodating Bosnia’s diverse demographic tapestry. This arrangement, however imperfect, also laid the foundation for a modicum of stability in the region.

Yet, beneath the surface, the ethno-nationalist fault lines have never truly healed. The inherent weaknesses of the Dayton Agreement are now glaringly apparent. Its division of power along ethnic lines and the creation of separate entities, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska, have enshrined ethnic divisions in the political landscape. This fragmentation has allowed nationalist sentiments to fester, and the political elite, exploiting these divisions for their own gain, have propagated an atmosphere of distrust and dysfunction.

One of the most egregious threats to Bosnia’s unity lies in the Republika Srpska, where secessionist ambitions, supported by Serbia and Russia, emboldened by the European Union’s appeasement policies over the past years, are rapidly rising. This is not merely an internal affair; it is a manifestation of Belgrade’s wider regional ambitions and power dynamics. The danger is that the Republika Srpska’s secession would not only destabilize Bosnia but also inflame ethnic tensions throughout the Balkans, potentially sparking a chain reaction of territorial claims and conflicts in Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Kosovo. 

After years of neglect, it seems that Western nations are finally realizing the gravity of the matter. During a recent meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in Washington, Blinken remarked: “We very much appreciate Germany’s leadership when it comes to limiting some of the financial flows to the Republika Srpska’s President [Milorad] Dodik, to both rejoining and strengthening EUFOR’s [the European Union Forces’s Bosnia-Herzegovina military operation] ALTHEA program. And we talked about how the European Union can maintain pressure on actors who are putting Bosnia and Herzegovina at great risk – notably, Mr. Dodik – using all necessary tools, and boosting the capabilities of the stability mission.”

The Western world’s historical involvement in the Balkans, culminating in the military intervention during the Yugoslav Wars, carries a moral responsibility that should not be forgotten. It was NATO intervention – spearheaded by the US – that halted the bloodshed and set the stage for the fragile peace in Bosnia. The same principled commitment to peace and stability must now drive Western nations to act before it is too late.

IT’S IMPERATIVE to acknowledge that Bosnia’s disintegration would reverberate far beyond its borders. The Western world has a vested interest in the maintenance of stability in Southeast Europe as not only does this region serve as a vital corridor for energy supplies and trade routes, but it also represents a litmus test for the international community’s commitment to upholding democratic values, minority rights, and the rule of law.

The domino effect of diplomacy

Bosnia’s unraveling would not be an isolated event, it would send shockwaves through a Europe grappling with its own internal challenges. Western nations should be acutely aware that their reluctance to intervene could embolden other ethno-nationalist movements across the continent. The repercussions would not be limited to the Western Balkans – but would include Romania and Hungary – and could potentially threaten the very foundations of the European Union.

In the face of these ominous prospects, some may argue that Bosnia’s internal strife should be left to resolve itself, citing the principle of non-interference in a nation’s domestic affairs. 

However, this perspective ignores the intricate web of international interests and responsibilities that bind nations together in the modern world – particularly Croatia and Serbia’s irredentist aspirations towards Bosnian territory and Russian and Chinese malign influence. 

The concept of national sovereignty has evolved to encompass not only the rights of nations but also their obligations to their citizens and the global community. In this interconnected age, where borders are increasingly porous and the repercussions of internal conflicts can be felt far and wide, the international community’s role in preserving peace and stability cannot be underestimated.

Moreover, Bosnia’s internal strife is far from an isolated matter. It is a testament to the global challenge of managing diversity within nations. The issues of minority rights, political representation, and reconciliation that Bosnia grapples with resonate with societies worldwide. By intervening effectively in Bosnia, Western nations can demonstrate their commitment to finding peaceful, inclusive solutions to such challenges, setting a positive example for the rest of the world.

The US has a vital role to play. It should leverage its diplomatic, military, and economic influence to pressure secessionist leaders such as Dodik and slash their financing and support from Serbia and Russia. A calibrated approach, in consultation with regional actors and international partners, is essential to ensure that punitive measures are targeted and effective.

Economic aid and development assistance should be conditional upon progress in addressing the root causes of Bosnia’s instability. Investment in infrastructure, education, and job creation can offer a glimmer of hope to disenchanted youth who might otherwise be drawn into the web of extremism. 

The Western public must understand that the preservation of peace in Bosnia serves as a bulwark against the resurgence of nationalism, intolerance, and violence in Europe. The lessons of history weigh heavily on our collective conscience. The West’s inaction during the early stages of the Yugoslav Wars led to unspeakable suffering and protracted conflict. The specter of the Srebrenica genocide, where thousands of Bosniak men and boys were systematically murdered by Serb forces, remains a haunting reminder of the international community’s failure to protect vulnerable populations.

The disintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina is not an abstract possibility; it is a looming reality that threatens to plunge the region into chaos. The legacy of the Dayton Agreement, which was meant to be a beacon of hope for conflict resolution, now teeters on the brink of irrelevance. 

Western nations, with their power and influence, have the means to avert this disaster. Only a concerted US-led intervention can salvage the promise of a unified, inclusive Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The writer is co-founder of the Sarajevo Security Conference, taking place October 15-17. He is also a journalist and political analyst covering the Balkans. Over the past decade, he has authored numerous articles on geopolitics and religion, particularly Islam, in the post-communist Balkans.