US offers conditional intelligence assistance to Israel during ongoing war with Hamas - opinion

According to US media reports, the Biden administration had offered Israel help in finding the hiding places of the leaders of the Hamas terror group. The offer was conditional on the Netanyahu government abandoning its plans to storm the city of Rafah.

The sources claimed that the Biden administration, working urgently to prevent a full-scale Israeli invasion of Rafah, had promised Israel valuable support if it backed down. This included sharing sensitive intelligence information to help the Israeli army locate Hamas leaders and uncover the movement’s hidden tunnels in the Gaza Strip.

Therefore, one can conclude that the US already knows the hideouts of Hamas leaders in Gaza or has important information regarding them. This, of course, raises questions about the validity and veracity of this offer, especially since the US has been working side by side with Israel since the outbreak of war following the Hamas massacre on October 7, last year.

It is obvious that Israel receives accurate information from the US, Europe, and the United Kingdom, whose planes monitor the skies over Gaza around the clock. Therefore, it is doubtful that intelligence information is being concealed from the Israeli side, which raises the question: What is the real objective of this American offer?

This American proposal can be interpreted in light of two important options. First: The US has confirmed intelligence on the whereabouts of the Hamas leaders, as well as documented evidence, being deliberately withheld from Israel, that would allow the IDF to continue its military operation in Gaza and achieve strategic goals supported by the US.

US strategies in Gaza crisis

The possible reason for concealing this information is that arresting the Hamas heads would end Israel’s operations in Gaza, removing any justification for further fighting – something the US does not want. Therefore, the US could be using this information as leverage to resolve the situation and end the killings once they became too costly for President Joe Biden to continue in the face of mounting domestic political pressure – as evidenced by the protests at American universities against the ongoing Gaza war.

The second option is that the US does not have current information about the whereabouts of these terror chiefs but views direct involvement with Israel in a broad intelligence operation aimed at scouring Gaza as the least politically damaging way to obtain such information.

In this scenario, the US could secure Arab cooperation to gather intelligence on terrorist leaders in Gaza or coordinate with neighboring Arab countries and use all regional intelligence channels. Essentially, the idea is to form a broad regional intelligence/military alliance to help Israel achieve victory by arresting Hamas terror group leaders and accurately mapping the tunnel network – similar to the regional defense cooperation the US led to repel the Iranian attack on Israel last month effectively.

The problem with these offers is their belated timing and the lack of a positive response. Therefore, the only way out of this predicament is for the IDF to release the hostages or kill or arrest the terror leaders, especially head honcho Yahya Sinwar. This explains Israel’s insistence on continuing the fighting as the Netanyahu government’s only path to that end, regardless of the strategic cost.

Israel, unresponsive to American overtures, has tightened control of the Rafah border crossing. This move is primarily aimed at maximizing pressure on the Hamas leaders and signaling their inability to flee this war – or end it peacefully as tremendous leverage to force a ceasefire and the release of the remaining Israeli hostages.

However, this Israeli move appears to be fraught with risk, as the Hamas terror group and Sinwar may ultimately opt to continue fighting regardless of possible casualties, viewing that as a lesser evil than surrendering or leaving Gaza as part of an agreement.

There is no doubt that media leaks about the Gaza crisis are mostly aimed at discharging electoral and political interests, and many may not be true – especially since the US and Israel are walking a tightrope in light of increasing internal pressure.

The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.