Real estate emerges from the hurricane - opinion

The investor’s experience is rarely unequivocal. Gains are welcomed with delight but also trepidation over whether profits should be taken before any reversal. Losses are feared, but the psychology of sunk costs can reinforce determination.

So, how should investors interpret markets today? Equities have recovered their losses after a bruising start to August, but macroeconomic risks still loom. Bonds have rallied since May, bringing down their yields even as inflation still looms over monetary policy.

Fortunately, given these competing emotions, investors have alternative options. Real estate is an important one – indeed, 2023-25 could represent one of the best-ever vintages for European real estate, offering investors a rare opportunity to invest at cyclical lows just as fundamentals start to improve.

We must acknowledge that real estate faced a category 5 hurricane in 2023, with the speed and size of rate hikes battering both leveraged owners and investor sentiment. Some of the effects are still being witnessed, with negative headlines engulfing troubled developers and exposed banks in places as varied as the US, Germany, and China. In addition, the pandemic also had a very strong effect on the office sector, reducing demand at a time of lots of new supply, particularly in the US market.

So what is the good news? First, interest rates now seem to have plateaued; regardless of the pace at which they decline – the subject of much current debate in markets – they are unlikely to increase further. Global equities have already reacted to this and remain around peak prices despite recent volatility. Bonds similarly seem to have priced in a further series of rate cuts before they actually transpire.

Real estate, on the other hand, has yet to stage the same recovery from its lows. There seems to be no reason why asset prices in this market shouldn’t adjust higher over time as investors recognize that the worst of the impact from rising interest rates is now in the past.

At the same time as investors can benefit from this attractive entry point – and there are still many motivated sellers in real estate, so buyers can drive bargains – improvements in macro conditions could provide additional support for rental growth and asset prices. Evidence of economic resilience is thus another tailwind for real estate yet to be reflected in valuations.

European real estate

In fact, European real estate delivered rental growth in 2023, underpinned by favorable supply and demand dynamics. In some sectors the growth reached double-digit percents due to a lack of new supply – even in the most challenged of sectors, offices. Vacancy rates in European offices are low, from as little as 2.3% in central Paris to sub-10% in London, Madrid, Frankfurt, and Berlin. This helped average office rents in prime European cities to increase by more than 6.3% last year.

With an ongoing dearth of new developments, this trend should continue in 2024-25; the weak market has left development projects down by over 50%, meaning that when there is an economic recovery in Europe, it will be met with no new supply in an already constrained and under-supplied market, which should lead to rental growth. 

For those willing to express a view on real estate gaining in capital terms from the end of the hiking cycle, like other asset classes already have, such rental boosts – especially in top-tier locations – should prove very attractive.

So, while investors must consider a multitude of risks for equities and bonds, real estate has already priced in a lot of bad news and its return profile now seems highly skewed to the upside. Buying around the market lows, which we are facing now due to the interest rate environment, has historically been rewarding for value-added investors in real estate.

This timing aspect, plus the rental growth prospects for the right supply-constrained sectors and the longer-term sustainability trend of “greener” buildings attracting a premium, could be a powerful combination. When sentiment is lowest, the opportunity set is often highest. 

The writer is deputy CEO and global head of real estate at Pictet Alternative Advisors.