Hamas’s hostage homicide is a long-war strategy - opinion

Hamas’s cold-blooded execution of six Israeli hostages after 330 days in captivity in Gaza’s underground terror tunnels has underscored the urgency of freeing the remaining 101 kidnapped victims. The question is: at what price? Despite US mediation efforts and Israel’s offers, Hamas plays by its own rules.

Thousands of Israeli demonstrators have demanded for months that Israel “Bring them home now!” The language is a demand on Israel and not Hamas to free the hostages, vindicating the terrorists’ relentless pressure strategy on the Netanyahu government and Israeli society.

Despite harsh criticism of Israel’s inflexibility in negotiations, the record tells a different story. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted in a dramatic Hebrew-language press conference on September 2, the last two American bridging proposals noted Israel’s flexibility and Hamas’s refusal to budge.

Why? Because Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar doesn’t want a deal. He plans to cause Israel to bleed profusely, divide Israeli society, create civil strife – even civil war, bring huge pressure on Netanyahu, and trigger a regional Iran-driven war on Israel.

It seems that Hamas is making progress in its psychological war against Israel. Hamas made sure to record each of the hostages on video to galvanize Israeli and international public opinion to attempt to force Israel to capitulate to Hamas’s demands. When Israel refused, Sinwar ordered the execution of six innocent victims, depicting the Israeli government as intransigent. This win-win situation for Hamas reflects its “total warfare.”

Recently discovered instructions in Arabic issued by Hamas leadership and recovered by IDF units in Gaza confirmed Sinwar’s strategic thinking. Hamas’s strategy directive stated: first, increase distribution of hostage photos and videos to maximize psychological pressure; second, lay blame on Netanyahu for the ongoing war and hostage crisis; and third, counter the Israeli narrative that the IDF offensive maneuvers will bring the return of the hostages.

Why else is a hostage deal stuck in the ruins of Hamas-controlled Gaza? The Israeli hostage fiasco is also subject to media misinformation. Calls for “ceasefire” and “bring them home” don’t reflect the deal on the table. Israel would pay an enormous price for very few live hostages.

The August 28 US-mediated negotiations included the proposed release of only 12 to 20 live hostages, as Netanyahu confirmed in the September 2 press conference. A prospective agreement leaves the vast majority of live and dead hostages in Hamas dungeons, increasing the probability of death for the remaining victims.

Israel is profoundly concerned that there won’t be a second stage, which is why the prime minister is holding out for the maximum number of hostages to be returned in the first stage; many believe there will be only one.

WHILE SINWAR’S psychological warfare on Israel is succeeding, Israel has drawn local and international ire for refusing to leave the strategically vital Philadelphi Corridor, the 14 km. passage that separates Gaza from Egypt. The issue is one of the highest of importance to secure Israel and prevent the massive flow of arms and ammunition through scores of tunnels that have been discovered in the past months from Egypt into Gaza.

Hamas can regain its strength with an Israeli pullout from Philadelphi

An Israeli pullout from the Philadelphi Corridor would leave this vital passage in the hands of Hamas, enabling the terror group to maintain power, rearm, and resupply. This would also reassert Iran’s presence in the Gaza Strip and serve as an escape route for Hamas leadership as well as scores of hostages who can be moved into Egypt and ultimately to Iran or other countries.

Retreating from the corridor and merely depending on technological means to monitor it, as some in the defense establishment have suggested, would be a strategic disaster that Israel cannot afford to risk. This point was emphasized in the recent assessment by Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of IDF Intelligence Assessment and current Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs senior fellow.

The claim that Israel can allow itself to pull back from the Philadelphi Corridor to complete a prospective deal and then return after several weeks or months is highly unlikely. History shows that it is far more difficult to retake evacuated areas, even when under fire or strategic threat. Former prime minister Ariel Sharon’s concession of the Philadelphi Corridor and the subsequent highway of terror created there since Israel’s 2005 withdrawal from Gaza is a prime example.

Former prime minister Ehud Barak’s unilateral retreat from Southern Lebanon and the resulting massive rocket and missile fire from Hezbollah on northern Israel, in addition to their encampment just meters away from Israel’s northern border fence, is another example.

The vacuum of security has led to the evacuation of some 60,000 Israelis from their homes with no immediate solution in sight. To emphasize the point, Israel hasn’t reoccupied southern Lebanon to stop the assault. International pressure on Israel has prevented it from retaking territories vital to protecting both northern and southern Israel.

In the immediate aftermath of Hamas’s cold-blooded execution of six innocent people, Israel would be committing strategic suicide by negotiating with the executioners. The way forward is complex. Many in the West are convinced that the war against Hamas is a political conflict that can be negotiated to a successful solution. However, this is not the case.

Israel is facing a broader ideological, religious war for its existence, led by the Iranian regime and executed by its proxies – Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria, the Houthis, and radical Shi’ite militias in Iraq. Hamas’s strategy was dictated years ago when Sinwar visited Tehran, consulting with terrorist mastermind Qassem Soleimani, who was subsequently assassinated by the United States.

Israel finds itself in a catch-22 to which there are no easy answers. History has taught us painful lessons about confronting and overcoming evil. The US response to 9/11 and the British response to the 7/7 al-Qaeda attack was to eliminate al-Qaeda militarily in Afghanistan and Iraq. The West’s response to Nazi Germany’s invasion of Europe wasn’t to negotiate with Hitler but to destroy the Nazi regime.

Hitler’s Mein Kampf was discovered in homes across the Gaza Strip, a reminder that Israel – and by extension the West – is in a long war against an ideologically immutable, apocalyptic enemy that is exploiting 101 hostages to achieve its goal of Israel’s destruction and its promise of regional domination.

The writer is president of the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs.