Researchers imaging an ice-free Arctic, and it may happen much sooner than we thought

A new projection by climatologists suggests that the Arctic Ocean could experience its first ice-free day as early as summer 2027, with some models predicting it could happen within the next three years under certain conditions. According to HuffPost Spain, researchers have found that, regardless of current greenhouse gas emissions, the first ice-free day in the Arctic is already inevitable, with predictions suggesting it could occur within the next 20 years, and under certain conditions, as soon as three years.

Researchers Céline Heuzé from the University of Gothenburg and Alexandra Jahn from the University of Colorado Boulder conducted over 300 computer simulations to project when this first ice-free day might occur, as reported by Phys.org. They used computer models for the first time to predict this event. Their study, published in the journal Nature Communications, indicates that the rapid acceleration in Arctic sea ice loss could lead to an ice-free day by the end of summer, a concerning signal given previous expectations of around 2030.

The melting of Arctic ice has serious implications for sea level rise and for the Arctic's role as a regulator of Earth's climate, with the potential for an ice-free Arctic to occur more frequently in the coming years. The term "ice-free" is defined scientifically when the Arctic's ice extent drops below one million square kilometers, a definition established by polar scientists. The Arctic has a total area of more than 16 million square kilometers.

Since satellite measurements began in 1978, it has been known that the Arctic region loses nearly 80,000 square kilometers of ice per year, equivalent to the land mass of the US state of Maine, according to Nature. The Arctic sea ice is melting at an unprecedented rate of more than 12% per decade, with the trend unambiguous when averaged over ten years, reported by Phys.org.

This year's minimum solid extent of Arctic ice recorded was 4.28 million square kilometers, marking one of the lowest levels since 1978, as reported by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This represents a marked decline compared to the average coverage of 6.85 million square kilometers between 1979 and 1992.

"The first day without ice in the Arctic won't change things radically, but it will demonstrate that we have altered one of the defining characteristics of the Arctic's natural environment due to greenhouse gas emissions," Jahn stated in a press release. The researchers simulated the evolution of Arctic sea ice starting from the 2023 minimum extent of 3.30 million square kilometers, transitioning to daily ice-free conditions within just a few years.

They found that once a first ice-free day occurs in the simulations, it lasts between one day and 71 days, with a mean length of 25 days and a standard deviation of 17 days, as noted by Nature. However, there is good news: a drastic reduction in emissions could delay the timeline for an ice-free Arctic and reduce the time the ocean remains ice-free.

"Any reductions in emissions would help preserve sea ice," delaying the reckoning even if it can't be stopped, Jahn said.

Open ocean near the poles results in more erratic wind patterns and extreme weather events, both hot and cold, affecting populated regions worldwide, as reported by La Vanguardia. Sea ice protects the Arctic from warming by reflecting incoming sunlight back into space, while seawater absorbs sunlight, leading to increased heat accumulation in the summer months, according to Phys.org.

In summer, when the Sun never sets on the Arctic, the lack of reflective ice leads to significantly more heat being collected, which is then distributed around the planet, exacerbating global warming. Few people will like the consequences of ice-free Arctic summers, aside from shipping companies eager to finally use the Northwest Passage, according to IFLScience.

While it may be coming sooner than we thought, "an ice-free Arctic within three years, the fastest transition we found in the simulations, is very, very unlikely," noted Jahn.

Nature, Marca, IFLScience, El Pais, and El Correo reported on the research, among other websites. 

This article was written in collaboration with generative AI company Alchemiq