A Chinese Autumn? China reports warmest autumn on record

China has just experienced its warmest autumn since it began keeping comprehensive meteorological records in 1961, with average temperatures 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal, as announced by the National Climate Center, according to Xinhua News Agency. The period from September 1 to November 30, saw the national average temperature reach 11.8 degrees Celsius, surpassing the previous average of 10.3 degrees Celsius for the same period in past years.

This exceptional warmth follows China's hottest August on record, marking a continuation of unprecedented temperature highs in the country. The National Climate Center clarified the autumn temperature records in a post on the Chinese social network WeChat, as reported by Newsbomb.

Various regions across China experienced significant increases in temperature. Parts of central, eastern, southwestern, and northwestern China saw average temperatures that were 2 to 4 degrees Celsius higher during the autumn period compared to previous years, breaking numerous local records. In central China, temperatures rose even more sharply, with increases ranging from 4 to 6 degrees Celsius in certain areas of Jiangxi and Hubei provinces, as well as in the western region of Xinjiang. 

A total of 16 provinces and regions, including Liaoning, Tianjin, and Chongqing, recorded their highest temperatures since 1961, according to The Economic Times. Daily maximum temperatures at 375 national weather stations exceeded or equaled local historical autumn extremes. Additionally, the average number of high-temperature days nationwide in September hit a record high for the same period in history.

Residents of the southern coastal city of Guangzhou experienced a record-breaking long summer this year. The average temperature in Guangzhou exceeded 22 degrees Celsius for 240 days, breaking the previous record of 234 days set in 1994, as reported by La Croix.

The National Climate Center added that during the autumn period, greater precipitation was also recorded across the country, according to Xinhua News Agency. Warmer air can hold more water vapor, and warmer oceans mean greater evaporation, resulting in more intense downpours and storms, as noted by France 24. Nine storms occurred in China during this period, five of which were caused by typhoons, according to the National Climate Center.

China, the world's largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter, is facing a significant rise in average temperatures, contributing to more frequent extreme weather events. The country produced 12.6 gigatonnes of CO2 in 2023, according to data from the International Energy Agency, as cited by RTBF.

China has pledged to bring carbon dioxide emissions to a peak by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The government is actively developing renewable energies to achieve this goal, reported The Straits Times. In early November, the Chinese legislative body adopted a new energy law aimed at "promoting [...] carbon neutrality," according to state media, as mentioned by Mediapart.

Neighboring countries are also experiencing record-breaking temperatures. On Tuesday, Japan announced that it experienced the hottest autumn since systematic temperature measurements began 126 years ago, according to La Croix.

Looking ahead, meteorology experts predict that average temperatures in most of China during the upcoming winter season, spanning from December 2024 to February 2025, will be close to or higher than those of previous years, reported Haberler.

In November, the European climate monitoring program Copernicus declared that the year 2024 is "almost certainly" going to be the hottest ever recorded globally, with warming exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius. Copernicus anticipates that 2024 will likely see a temperature more than 1.55 degrees Celsius above the average recorded between 1850 and 1900, according to RTBF. These forecasts do not call into question the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius, and ideally to 1.5 degrees Celsius, because this target is calculated based on decadal averages and not annual averages.

China has also witnessed rapid urbanization and industrialization, which have increased urban heat islands and drastically raised carbon emissions. The exceptional temperatures recorded in autumn have affected Chinese territories in varying degrees. Sichuan, Chongqing, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River suffered from heat and drought in early autumn, while the exceptional temperatures are affecting different parts of China in various ways, as detailed by France 24.

Warmer temperatures are leading to a range of environmental impacts. This increase in heat is contributing to more frequent heatwaves, droughts, and floods, similar to global trends. The exceptional weather phenomena and heat waves have affected large parts of China's northern and western regions, as reported by Newsbomb.

China, as the world's leading emitter of greenhouse gases in absolute terms, is contributing to climate disruption and driving global climate change, which is making extreme weather events more frequent. The country has experienced rapid urbanization and industrialization, leading to increased urban heat islands and a significant rise in carbon emissions.

Beijing has committed to addressing these challenges by promoting renewable energy and implementing policies aimed at reducing emissions. The adoption of the new energy law signifies a step toward fulfilling its goals of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

This article was written in collaboration with generative AI company Alchemiq